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Why Gingrich Will Take It To Tampa

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Newt Gingrich expected to win the nomination. But two things got in the way. Both are closely related and neither of them is called Mitt Romney. The first is Rick Sanatorium, and the second is the utter breakdown of the GOP primary system and it’s complete disconnect to the US body politic as a whole.

The turning point for Newt was his defeat in Florida. At that point, he realized that the primaries were never going to break his way. Now he’s betting on something new. Something that’s right in his wheelhouse, a perfect fusion of the novel and the historical. A brokered convention. In this scenario, far from ceding the race to Sanatorium, Newt needs Sanatorium to do enough to hole Romney below the water line. All that matters to him is that Romney isn’t able to wrap it up by the time the GOP meets in Tampa. It’s unlikely that Romney won’t get it done, but when the press says as often that something – in this case – a brokered convention – is such a remote possibility, you can bet your boots it could happen. Add to that, Romney’s increasingly anemic limp to the finish line, and Newt is banking on him being broken even if he does make beyond the count he needs. Gingrich is just crazy enough to think he can peel off enough pledged delegates somehow, anyhow, to get in the game.

Once he’s in Tampa, Newt will try to turn the clock back and use all his oratorical powers to make a strong case for himself on a second ballot, where all bets are off. This is his political fantasy in action. Appealing to the delegates in the cut and thrust of a real rather than a stage managed convention, he’ll be in his element lobbying the elite, rather than playing to the rabble. In other words, he’ll be implying that the primary system is broken, and that the vaunted base has delivered a lemon. His point will be simple. Sanatorium is un-electable, Romney is not believable, and that only Newt, and his fast-action debating power can save the day, and skewer the President in a general election.

He’s banking on three other factors. Firstly, he knows that even if the party hate him, it’ll rally to his flag come the fall. Secondly, he knows that he’ll be able to build a campaign team to polish and project him in a way that can help him overcome his negatives. And thirdly, with Marco Rubio on the ticket as he will be, Florida is in the bag.

There’s only one reason for Newt to go to Tampa, and that’s to win his way. It’s not likely, but it is very, very possible. And with that possibility comes another – that the GOP might even cast off the disastrous shackles of its cracker conservatism.


Written by coolrebel

March 15, 2012 at 12:07 pm

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