There Is No Plan

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Syria Proves There Is No International Community Unless There’s Oil

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Apart from the meddling of various Muslim states on either side of the Sunni Shiite schism, and Turkish desperation to yet again curb its Kurds, and have a say in the outcome of next door’s brutal civil war, it looks very much like Syria is descending into one of the most vicious examples of state against rebel bloodletting for a very long time. Over time, the outcome is certain, Assad and the Alawites will fall, but little else can be predicted. How long it takes, how many people die, and the shape of Syria’s future ( even if there is a Syria ) are all “known unknowns”. But there is something likely, very likely. That the “International Community” will play little part in the outcome.

Apart from some minor and inconsequential bleats by Paris, nobody else with a seat at the big table wants any part of this conflict. The US and UK are stony in their silence now the UN play has crashed and burned courtesy of the Russians and the Chinese. Kofi Annan’s attempts to broker peace were merely used by Moscow and Beijing to perpetuate the strategic status quo and maintain Russian reach into the Mediterranean.

So here we are. Thousands dying every month, each death a trigger for more revenge. Air power is being used against lines at bakeries. And a sneaking suspicion starts to creep into the abyss in the form of a question.

Would it be different if Syria was a significant oil exporter?

This will not end well.  


Written by coolrebel

September 3, 2012 at 2:37 pm

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