There Is No Plan

Nobody Reads This Blog

The Most Boring Election Season In Years.

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Ever since Mitt Romney ground out his interminable victory in the GOP primary race, this has become the most stultifying election season imaginable. Two lumbering giants throwing dung-balls at each other doesn’t exactly make for much edifying discussion. The news outlets, cable pundits and bloggers try to squeeze out whatever importance they can from it all, but it’s pretty slim pickings. What will impact the race? The monthly job figures? How about Paul Ryan’s lies? Or Mitt’s Tax Returns? Or Obama “saying you didn’t build that”?
The truth is nothing is going to impact this race unless it’s really, really big.
A terrorist attack, a total zinger at the debates aside, the poll variations in this race are 95% statistical noise. The polls have been unbelievably static and will very likely remain that way until Election Day. 
What will decide this race is turnout of key demographics in the ultra-close battleground states. Tiny incremental shifts created by ground games will be key. That gives Obama an edge, because of his campaigning depth, and the very slightly statistical lead that he has where it matters. But will enough Hispanics turn out in Virginia? Or will enough seniors in Florida make it to the polls? Will the angry white voter be pissed enough to get out of bed? Will enough Independent women give Romney a second look? 
There is simply no way of knowing.
Pundits like to imagine there is a plan, because you can’t parse a dice roll, but the politics of this race has become so calcified that it’s hard to see anything meaningful emerging from all that hot air. 
All the noise, all the campaigning, all the boring attack ads, all that vaunted super-PAC dough, all the speeches, all the spin, all the gotcha moments, all the blogging (like this), all the tweets and all the money will be wasted, because in a race like this, as boring and static as it is, the only thing that matters is who shows up. 

Written by coolrebel

September 5, 2012 at 11:12 am

Posted in Washington

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