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Salafists and The Arab Spring. The Clash Begins.

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Apparently a Tunisian Salafist leader has “escaped” arrest for protesting the world’s most crap anti-Islam movie.

But what’s really going on here? Nobody really knows, but here’s an idea. The “moderate” Islamists that are taking over their basket case economies after the Arab Spring are scared shitless of the Salafists that have been unleashed by the end of strongman driven dictatorships, and in Tunisia, they let this guy go for fear of what arresting him might do. When Salafists attacked an art gallery in Tunis for showing work that insulted the Prophet, the government suggested that it was actually “hooligans infiitrating” the peaceful Salafist demonstration that wrecked the gallery.

Ahah. Sure. That sounds feasible.

Ben-Ali, Gaddafi, and Mubarak are gone (and Assad seems sure to follow) and that means it’s open season for the previously underground Salafists to bring out their whipping sticks and start beating up on girls who show a little ankle.

But here’s the problem. These countries are damned if they go after the Salafists and damned if they don’t.

If the governments of these countries squirrel their way out of confronting the Salafist threat, then they can kiss Western Tourism good-bye as the Salafists start raiding Western beaches with their switches, and watch their countries go into an economic tailspin – which ultimately threatens their own survival unless they decide to forgo the whole democracy deal and declare a state of emergency for thirty years or so. If they do that, of course, it’s b-bye foreign aid too.

And if the Islamists in power do summon up the courage to seriously go after the Salafists, then they’ll have to deal with a fired up bunch of extremists who will see the moderate Islamists as agents of the infidel, go underground and start bombing up the place, which will have pretty much the same effect. These post-strongman countries simply don’t have the security apparatus in place in keep a lid on the Salafists, and if they get the apparatus, they’ll be inviting a strongman to take over when the time is right.

We’ve yet to reap the true rewards of the Arab Spring, but we’re about to. And within a year or two, as unpalatable as this sounds, we in the West may well be wishing for regional strongmen we can trust to reestablish a semblance of order. If that happens, we’ll have the Salafists to thank for the irony.

Written by coolrebel

September 18, 2012 at 7:53 am

Posted in Egypt, Libya, Tunisia

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