There Is No Plan

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Iran’s Leaders Need To Be Attacked To Save Themselves

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Yes, I know, it sounds utterly hare-brained. But hear me out.

Iran has problems. Big, hulking, not going to go away until after they get worse, step in ze huge pile of doggie do-do and right onto the hallway carpet kind of problems.

  • Sanctions have rent asunder their already tattered economy.  Another year or two of this and the people of Tehran might get antsy. If China dumps Iran’s oil, we’re looking at hyper-inflation.
  • Syria is finished so Hizbollah is finished, so Iran’s proxies are cooked, so its ability to be the scary monster who’ll lash out if threatened isn’t quite what it used to be.
  • It’s surrounded by Arab states that have thrown off their dictators, and shown the world how to get it done. Most importantly, they’ve demonstrated there is a tipping point that’s easier to reach than anticipated.
  • Iran’s the only place where there’s no threat of a new theocracy, because they’ve already got one that’s cracking at the seams. So no fear of blow-back for the West if they meddle.
  • It has the most enlightened, liberal, motivated middle class in any Middle Eastern country by far. If they get their chance to strike they’ll take it, and they’ve learned their lessons.
  • After the embarrassing display by the West during the Green Revolution, Washington won’t sit idly by next time the students take up their cudgels and man the barricades.
  • It’s pushing forward with nukes, but even if it gets the Uranium will not have the delivery device. It’s one thing to have a Scud fizzle on launch, it’s quite another if its tipped with a nuke.
  • It’s ability to hit back against a strike is limited. What can it do? A few targeted assassinations? Mining the straits? Ramming the odd tanker with fastboats and human torpedoes?

The Mullahs can’t afford to go on and they can’t afford to back down. The idea that Iran would just capitulate to the West is hard to fathom, but the idea that they can successfully trigger the nuclear power play it desperately needs seems oddly remote too.

See, I told you they were in trouble.

But maybe there’s a way out.

And maybe the way out is to provoke the West into an attack. Maybe that’s what they’re doing.

But, but, but why?

  • Because the West even if attacked would never invade and occupy Iran. That would be impossible and insane. They’d only be there to wipe out the nukes.
  • Because the intense nationalism of the Iranian people would overcome their hatred of the Mullahs who’d wrap themselves in the flag and say “You see! Great Satan was out to get us after all!”
  • Because the Chinese and Russians would be in there in a flash to help rebuild. No more sanctions. No more nukes. No more war.

Just a rejuvenated theocracy that will live to fight another day.

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Written by coolrebel

October 31, 2012 at 10:02 pm

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